Demand Planning blogosphere: Yokohama and BusinessWeek’s “Plan V”

“Yokohama Tire Canada: Forecast Accuracy and the Cost of Being Right

Offering some comment and reaction to supply chain, forecasting and demand planning blog posts that caught my eye in recent months. In April, Jonathon Karelse, marketing manager of Yokohama Tire, teased a then-upcoming presentation he was giving at an Institute of Business Forecasting event.

While I did not have the opportunity to see Jonathan’s presentation, one claim he makes in his preview post did catch my eye. I bring it up because I often find myself in some version of this discussion when I’m talking with companies that want to attack their supply chain management issues and become more profitable.

Consider that the result of demand planning is only profitable to the extent that it is actionable – that is, if links above or below in the participant’s supply chain are unable to respond to the data, it might be a purely academic exercise.

I contend that it is not academic at all — even if your supply chain can’t react — because the issue isn’t forecast, the issue is timing. If the forecast identifies a demand signal that a company can’t or won’t respond to, it’s still good to know in the first place. Secondly, perhaps next time the company can learn and adjust for the opportunity by adding extra capacity or additional storage in a more favorable location or what have you; again, tough to say without seeing the speech. Last, you can calculate the opportunity cost of not having acted.

Karelse correctly points out the importance of keeping cost and benefits in mind — no argument from me — but the business Intelligence that he mentions should be integrated into a company’s demand planning, S&OP and forecasting processes with the software being used — not as a parallel process. Upper management is absolutely correct to drive for utmost accuracy, because even if the company decides not to act on a forecast (e.g., someone is optimally supplied), at least they are able to measure the difference and understand the opportunity cost.

“Why Every Business Needs a ‘Plan V’”

A BusinessWeek guest blog from Harold L. Sirkin used the recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland as a jumping-off point for musings on modern-day continuity planningn for business in the global age:

We may or may not see more such disruptions; who knows? What we do know is that any disruption that does occur will have far more serious ripple effects than anything seen in the past. That’s what happens when companies from everywhere are competing for everything with companies from everyplace else.

Wouldn’t debate this any more than I would over apple pie being good; however, how do you move from the theoretical stance below to the potentially unsustainable practice of simultaneously being ready for everything from global warming to Godzilla? For manufacturers, he recommends strategic inventory reserves, redundant manufacturing locations and alternative distribution networks. I don’t know many mid-sized manufacturers who can afford such preparedness.

It is extremely hard to run a profitable business focused on the .1% scenario and still make enough money to be alive when the .1% scenario comes to pass. This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t do the planning. This is something that can be helped by a process (and supporting technology) that combines comprehensive short- and long-term (high-level and execution-level detail, as well) forecasting and planning scenarios, taking into account the day-to-day business and what is most profitable right now.

From this assumption, you can then allow management to consider some strategic options. For example, “It may cost us a bit more to have an extra DC in South Africa, but the sales forecast shows growth that would support that DC in about three years. Why don’t we accelerate that investment to provide more fleixibility now and provide competitive insurance in case the .1% scenario happens.” That may be a more practical and sustainable approach.

Gene Tanski, Demand Foresight featured on Bold Ventures Radio

Jean Creech of Bold Ventures RadioI’d like to thank Jean Creech of Bold Ventures Radio for including me on her Wed., April 28 broadcast. Jean’s show airs in north Atlanta at 1620 AM and around the country at www.americaswebradio.com.

Bold Ventures Radio focuses on entrepreneurs, and it was my honor to be included as we discussed demand planning, forecasting, technology and business trends — as well as the genesis of Demand Foresight and our supply chain management software. I found this to be a stimulating experience and look forward to the chance to chat with Jean again.

You can listen to the whole episode here. I come on after the first few minutes.

IT’s fiduciary responsibility for business performance: Best-of-breed versus the failed ERP approach

A few months ago, I wrote about IT and the competitive disadvantages inherent in an ERP approach. The short version: one-vendor suites are not a competitive differentiator and they’re not a business strategy. With the market requiring CIOs to be more business- and customer-driven than ever, I’m frankly surprised that salvos like Rick Veague’s (CTO, IFS North America) still get any serious credence. In the back-and-forth about best-of-breed and ERP, I appreciate the multiplicity of perspectives. But I say without equivocation that the assertions in this article are just plain wrong, top to bottom. Unfortunately, this seems to be the default perspective for too many CIOs.

In recent years though, there has been a growth in the number of stand-alone software solutions — “best of breed” applications as they are called — that threaten to roll back the progress experienced by manufacturers  these many years. These software products deal with only a segment of the enterprise, inhibiting the free flow of communication and reducing efficiencies. The more these software products proliferate, the more expensive and confusing enterprise technology becomes, and he [sic] more difficult it is to coalesce data for reporting and manage enterprise-wide security.

First of all, the big ERP suites are fundamentally a collection of best-of-breed functionality that was acquired piece by piece from competitors who outperformed them in a particular process or function. ERP vendors are essentially marshaling functions and integrating them in the background in the same way a best-of-breed, or bolt-on, strategy would. You’re just paying a hefty premium for the brand name.

ERP cannot provide the best in all things, all the time. Instead of empowering critical teams to seek the best way to do business, everybody is yoked to lowest-common-denominator performance. My thinking is uncomfortable and inconvenient for many CIOs who know that big suites make their life easier and provide a dependable supply of embroidered shirts and free rounds of golf. But it ultimately comes down to this: once a company is strategically clear about how they’re going to compete, they should then go find the technology to execute, giving their people the absolute best tools they can to beat the competition. ERP vendors routinely blur three critical areas of focus: best of talent, process and platform. This is old-school, reflexive protection of IT empire. It’s locked-in thinking that is killing companies’ ability to compete.

Selected facepalm moments from this article

Late in the article, Veague highlights a number of disadvantages of best-of-breed. On the whole, I found these objections were shallow, ticky-tacky or low-level. What they collectively miss, and it’s a big miss, is the imperative that all technology should directly support your strategic initiatives. One vanilla system cannot possibly help your company do this. If you have an ERP that’s sub-optimizing critical functions that your team needs to better compete, I can guarantee you that it’s costing you a lot more than the growing pains of integrating a best-of-breed ever would. I’m talking about revenue, cost-efficiencies and EBITDA. If you can’t point directly to how IT is driving all those factors, your IT isn’t doing its job.

That’s the standard we hold ourselves to, and the linchpin of our company’s value proposition: we guarantee that our software will deliver outstanding performance (like reducing forecast error by 25%) and a bottom-line impact (minimum 5% increase in EDITDA) that would offset any issue listed below 100 times over. It is this type of performance that underlies the strength in best-of-breed. Companies need to understand it, utilize it, and let their IT help them be more competitive rather than dummied down and made to be like everyone else. But on to Veague’s points…

Integrating best of breed solutions requires the work of systems integrators, adding cost and substantially extending implementation time. These efforts are typically unnecessary with a Suite application.

Ain’t necessarily so. Today, integrating can actually be faster and cost less.

Reporting and access to information can be more expensive using a best of breed solutions because corporate information is spread across multiple applications and platforms.

Technologically, this is completely wrong. This has been proven time and time again. For example, having a data warehouse that supports best in breed/performance architecture bears a cost that is certainly no more, and possibly less expensive than an ERP.

A best of breed solution can increase costs for supporting technology acquisition and maintenance costs.

Only if mismanaged. The amount you pay for installs, maintenance and upgrades of an integrated suite are going to more than erase any savings you get here.

Different best of breed solutions tend to have distinct or unique security models, and that means it is harder to maintain security and privacy across an integrated collection of products.

Sorry, but this sounds like garbage to me. There are many applications that will exactly mirror the security model from your ERP and/or financial systems.

Usability and the ability to collaborate are often diminished with a collection of best of breed solutions because users that must work cross-functionally must learn different user interfaces and systems. This is in contrast with a Suite product that offers a consistent, well-thought-out user experience.

I think that this is fundamentally wrong. If you have a big ERP suite with a forecasting module that is there because, well, it just comes with the rest of the bundle, your people aren’t going to use it to the degree they they should. Your best performers aren’t going to adopt some perfunctory, clunky what-not just because it’s integrated. However,if you give them a tool that is tailored to the way that they work and they see how it will make them better, then they’ll see the value and usability will go up accordingly. If you go down to the lowest common denominator, people don’t get deeply involved and they won’t collaborate anyway.

There are a lot of companies out there that are less competitive than they could be because thinking like Veague’s is taken for granted. I’ll be blunt about it: any officers at any company who swallow this stuff wholesale are abrogating their fiduciary responsibilities to their teams, their bosses and their shareholders.

Where’s the love for bootstrapped companies?

Just finished reading a WSJ article about 50 high-potential, venture-backed firms.  Good article and good companies.  However, this got me thinking: Why this focus on venture-backed firms?  If an entrepreneur has no other options, then funding from a venture source is obviously fantastic.  But it comes with a huge price.

Bottom line, the original entrepreneur team that works with a venture group ends up with 10% or less of the company they founded. While their ownership is shaved down with each new tier of financing, their control over the vision and day-to-day management of their company is similarly curtailed. More and more, the management team (vetted and installed by their VC backers) focuses on meeting investor-driven goals that are centered on sheer dollars rather than strategy or vision.

There are obviously many more detailed arguments, both pro and con, concerning venture firms. But it seems to me that a lot of people look at venture backing as a substitute for their own due diligence: “If a venture firm has decided to invest, they must be good company/have a good idea!” And this is the gist of my issue with the article mentioned above — where are the garlands for the American heroes who bootstrap their companies?

Here is the difference between venture-backed companies and bootstrap entrepreneurs: bootstrappers believe so much in what they are doing, that they will risk everything — kids’ college funds, the homes they live in, their retirement funds — to make it happen. Their belief is strong enough that they won’t risk being compromised by short-term financial pressure applied by VCs whose only eye is on the quickest ROI possible. Bootstrappers forgo quick returns and make sure that their customers have provable results that corroborate their own wild convictions. They believe so much in what they’re building, they’re not going to dilute the eventual reward by giving it away to money people.

As you look at the future of demand planning, supply chain management and forecasting, keep your focus wide enough so that you’re seeing more than features, functionality, and dollar signs. Also look for the companies who shun venture capital and make it work because they know they’re creating huge value for their customers — and will do anything to nurture that value.

Why best-of-breed matters: Imperial Sugar and Demand Foresight in CIO

We’d like to offer our thanks to a great client, Imperial Sugar, and CIO for picking up on this tale of foresight and resilience. The Imperial Sugar team did an incredible job of facing down some very steep challenges to their business. We’re really proud to be a part of this story…

After the refinery catastrophe, Imperial Sugar needed immediate insight
into how many customers it could serve with its available inventory.
The software gave them that overview by product line, and its
“available to promise” functionality allowed everyone from production
to sales to see, in real time, what could be delivered.

Read the rest here